Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world, with a population of 280 million. The background behind its growing population includes not only the fact that the population was originally large, but also people’s values, government policies, and post-war economic growth.

A large population is one of the most critical factors when conducting business. Moreover, Indonesia is not only populous but also boasts a high proportion of young people, which makes the country even more promising. A visit to central Jakarta will immediately reveal just how many young people are present. For those interested in Indonesia’s population pyramid, please refer to related articles.

This article explains the reasons for Indonesia’s large population based on historical and social factors. It also introduces various data points related to population trends.

Indonesia’s Large Population

Population Trends in Indonesia

Prepared by PT. TRICRUISE MARKETING INDONESIA based on BPS “Jumlah Penduduk Pertengahan Tahun (Ribu Jiwa), 2022-2024”

First, let’s look at the trend of Indonesia’s population. In 1950, Indonesia ranked sixth in the world by population, following China, India, the United States, Russia, and Japan. Since then, the population has steadily increased. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Indonesia’s population is projected to reach 281.6 million in 2024.

As mentioned later, while the birth rate in Indonesia has declined and the population growth rate has decreased to about 0.8%, the population is expected to continue growing until around 2065. By around 2045, when the country is anticipated to hit the peak of its demographic bonus, the population is projected to reach 324 million.

Historical Population Figures of Indonesia

• 1950: 79.54 million
• 1960: 93.93 million
• 1971: 119.20 million
• 1990: 179.32 million
• 2000: 203.46 million
• 2010: 238.52 million
• 2015: 255.59 million
• 2020: 270.20 million
• 2024: 281.60 million

References:

• BPS “Jumlah Penduduk Pertengahan Tahun (Ribu Jiwa), 2022-2024”
• Harian Indonesia
• Studi Ilmu Indonesia
• National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (Japan)

Trends in Indonesia’s Birth Rate

Prepared by PT. TRICRUISE MARKETING INDONESIA based on databoks “Angka Kelahiran Indonesia Turun 30% dalam Tiga Dekade” and “Angka Kelahiran Nasional Menurun Drastis, Program KB Sukses?”

In 1971, Indonesia’s total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.6. By 2024, it has finally declined to 2.0, placing Indonesia in the mid-range among Southeast Asian countries.

Historical Trends in Indonesia’s Birth Rate

• 1971: 5.6
• 1980: 4.7
• 1990: 3.1
• 1995: 2.8
• 2000: 2.5
• 2005: 2.4
• 2010: 2.5
• 2015: 2.3
• 2020: 2.2
• 2024: 2.0

References:

• databoks
• DataIndonesia.id
• GoodStats

Reasons for Indonesia’s Large Population (1): Geographical Conditions and Historical Background

One of the reasons for Indonesia’s large population is that it was originally populous. Various factors have contributed to this, including the country’s vast territory, tropical climate, and abundant food supply—particularly rice—all of which are favorable geographical conditions that have supported population growth since ancient times.

Of course, Indonesia not only maintained its originally large population but also succeeded in increasing it over time. This was due not only to geographical advantages but also to government policies.

Changes in Indonesia’s Population Policies

Under the Sukarno Administration (1945–1967)

During the Sukarno era, family planning was viewed as an imposition on human behavior—akin to “birth control” or even a “violation of human rights”—and was socially taboo. Particularly in the 1950s, discussions about birth control were prohibited by law. As a result, topics such as planned pregnancy and childbirth were generally confined to the medical community.

Under the Suharto Administration (1968–1998)

The Suharto administration recognized that rapid population growth was a driving factor behind various socio-economic problems such as poverty, food insecurity, and excessive strain on natural resources. Consequently, the government actively promoted family planning initiatives under the slogan “Dua Anak Cukup” (Two Children Are Enough).

The program was promoted through collaboration with religious leaders and local communities. As a result, the birth rate declined significantly, and the population growth rate, which exceeded 2.3% in the 1960s, dropped below 2% in the 1980s. Focus was also placed on maternal and infant health, contributing to reduced mortality rates.

Current Situation

Today, Indonesia’s National Population and Family Planning Agency (BKKBN) promotes the slogan “Dua Anak Sehat” (Two Healthy Children). While the declining birth rate suggests success, disparities between regions have widened. The agency is now also concerned about the negative impact of excessively low birth rates and encourages families to aim for an average of two children.

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Reasons for Indonesia’s Large Population (2): Views on Family

Religious Background

Approximately 90% of Indonesia’s population is Muslim. In Islam, children are considered a blessing from Allah, and having righteous children is seen as a divine favor. The religion encourages believers to have children and expand the community of faith, as long as proper care and education can be provided.

In this context, having many children has traditionally been viewed positively, with large families seen as symbols of prosperity and divine blessing.

Children as a Labor Force

Beyond religious beliefs, children were historically viewed as valuable contributors to household labor, agriculture, and other manual work. In the past, high infant mortality also led parents to have more children to ensure economic and labor stability.

Reasons for Indonesia’s Large Population (3): Economic Growth and Improvements in Healthcare and Welfare

Impact of Economic Growth on Population

Economic growth tends to increase population in the short term and decrease birth rates in the long term. In the Suharto era, Indonesia’s population growth rate was 2% alongside strong GDP growth. Today, that rate has fallen to 0.8%.

As healthcare and living standards improve, even with fewer births, more people live longer, leading to continued population growth.

Impact of Healthcare and Welfare Enhancements on Population

With better healthcare, expanded welfare, and health awareness campaigns, Indonesians are living longer. From 2014 to 2023, male life expectancy rose from 68.9 to 70.2 years, and female life expectancy from 72.6 to 74.2 years.

Aging Population

In 2023, seniors aged 60 or older comprised about 12% of the population (approximately 29 million). By 2045, this group is expected to reach 50 million, or 20% of the population.

Decline in Infant Mortality Rate

Indonesia’s infant mortality rate declined from 145 per 1,000 births in 1971 to 16.9 in 2020. BPS forecasts this figure will fall to 7.9 by 2045.

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Stagnation of Indonesia’s Population Growth Rate

While Indonesia’s population continues to grow, the rate is declining. This section explains the contributing factors.

Changing Views on Family

The belief that “more children is better” has faded. Economic growth, improved healthcare, and laws against child marriage and labor have led to a shift in values. Many families now invest more in fewer children, providing quality education and care.

The “childfree” lifestyle—choosing not to have children—is gaining popularity, especially among urban youth, due to personal preferences or socioeconomic concerns such as inflation and environmental degradation.

A BPS survey shows that the percentage of women aged 15–49 who do not wish to have children increased from 7% in 2019 to 8.2% in 2022.

Rising Age of First Marriage and Decline in Marriage Rates

According to BPS, the unmarried rate among Indonesians aged 16–30 increased from 55.8% in 2015 to 69.8% in 2024. The ideal marriage ages proposed by BKKBN are 21 for women and 25 for men, aimed at preventing child marriage rather than encouraging early unions.

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The Current State of Indonesia, the World’s Fourth Most Populous Country

Ongoing Child Labor Issues

While child labor is legally prohibited, financial hardship still forces some children to work. School attendance drops from 99.4% in primary to 93.2% in junior high. Reasons include distance and financial constraints.

Family Planning Guidance at Public Health Centers

Family planning seminars are held across the country, often at public health centers. Contraceptive procedures are sometimes covered by national health insurance (BPJS), reflecting Indonesia’s nationwide campaign for reproductive education.

Toward Further Growth by Leveraging a Large Population

Indonesia’s large population stems from a blend of historical, environmental, social, and economic factors. The demographic bonus is expected to continue for some time, maintaining Indonesia’s appeal for business.

However, the pace of population growth is slowing, and issues like declining birth rates and aging are emerging. Policies that ensure sustainable development while leveraging demographic strength will be essential going forward.