The birth rate in Indonesia has been on a long-term declining trend. As of 2024, the total fertility rate (TFR) stands at 2.0, and it is projected to fall to 1.95 by 2050. However, considering that Japan’s TFR is 1.26, this figure is relatively favorable in comparison.

Although a TFR of 1.95 is projected for 2050, this still lies 25 years into the future, suggesting that there is ample opportunity for intervention. With a population of approximately 300 million, Indonesia continues to benefit from a demographic bonus until around 2040, and even by 2050, the country is expected to maintain a TFR of 1.95. This highlights Indonesia’s significant national potential.

Several factors such as shifts in the average age at first marriage for women and changes in the age at first pregnancy and childbirth have influenced the decline in Indonesia’s birth rate. However, these are common phenomena in nations undergoing economic development. Despite the ongoing decline in birth rates, Indonesia remains one of the most attractive countries in Southeast Asia from a demographic perspective.

Trends and Projections of Indonesia’s Birth Rate

Sources:

• databoks: “Angka Kelahiran Indonesia Turun 30% dalam Tiga Dekade”
• BPS: “Angka Kelahiran Total / Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Menurut Provinsi, 1971–2020”
• Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2020–2050 Hasil Sensus Penduduk 2020, p.16 (compiled by PT. TRICRUISE MARKETING INDONESIA)

According to surveys, Indonesia’s total fertility rate (TFR), which was 5.6 in 1971, has continued to decline and finally reached 2.0 in 2024.

The Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) predicts that, although the birth rate may fluctuate slightly, it will continue to decrease and reach 1.95 by 2050. This figure is close to the population replacement level in Indonesia. This projection implies that after 2050, Indonesia will enter a period of near-zero population growth.

TFR Trends in Indonesia:

Note: The data for 1971 and 1980 are based on decennial censuses; data from 1990 onward are based on annual surveys.

Additional References:

• GoodStats: “Tren Tingkat Kelahiran di Dunia, Indonesia Peringkat 5 di ASEAN”

Population Trends in Indonesia

Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world. According to BPS, the population in 2024 is estimated at 281.6 million. Compared to 1950, this represents an approximate 3.5-fold increase. BPS forecasts that the population will continue to grow until around 2065, reaching 328.93 million by 2050.

Population Growth Over Time in Indonesia:

Sources:

• BPS, Harian Indonesia, DataIndonesia.id, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (Japan)

Trends in Indonesia’s Population Growth Rate

Indonesia’s population growth rate has been steadily declining. The following data is based on decennial censuses conducted by BPS.

The growth rate from 2020 to 2024 is recorded at 1.1%. BPS projects this rate to continue falling in the future.

Background Behind the Decline in Indonesia’s Birth Rate

Changes in the Average Age at First Marriage

According to BPS, the average age at first marriage in 2024 is 21.8 years. For men, it is 23.9 years, and for women, 19.9 years.

The legal marriage age was revised in 2019 to 19 for both men and women. Rising educational attainment and career opportunities for women have contributed to this trend.

Education level and urbanization are closely tied to marriage age: higher-educated individuals and urban residents tend to marry later.

The ideal marriage age according to the BKKBN is 21 for women and 25 for men to prevent child marriages and early pregnancies.

Changes in Age at Pregnancy and Childbirth

Between 2020 and 2023, the average age at first pregnancy was 21.6 years, increasing slightly to 21.7 years in 2024.

2024 data shows:

• Higher education graduates: first pregnancy at 25 years
• Primary school graduates: first pregnancy at 20.2 years
• Urban residents: 22.2 years
• Rural residents: 21 years

In Japan, the average age at first childbirth was 31 years in 2023.

Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)

These figures reflect a shift toward later marriage and childbirth, especially in urban and affluent demographics. However, in rural areas, early marriage still persists due to limited access to education and employment.

Note: ASFR = number of births per 1,000 women in a given age group per year.

Indonesia Today with a Birth Rate of “2”

Crowded Playgrounds

In child-rich Indonesia, new playgrounds and amusement areas are emerging. Most shopping malls have playgrounds, and cafés, restaurants, and hotels often include play spaces.

Outdoor playgrounds are also growing in number. Some retain a nostalgic market feel, while others are modern and social media-friendly. Many social media accounts are dedicated to sharing child-friendly venue information.

As of 2023, 23.9% of Indonesia’s population is under age 15. In Japan, this figure is only 11.3% (2024).

Growing Preference for Remaining Single

A viral video features a 17-year-old Indonesian girl declaring her contentment with remaining single, enjoying her fangirl lifestyle. This reflects a growing trend on Indonesian social media where many young women choose hobbies and solitude over marriage.

Historically, such statements would have been socially unacceptable. Today, while young people may still face family pressure to marry, open expressions of a desire to remain single are more common.

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Increasing Population, Declining Birth Rate, and the Need to Focus on Structural Changes in Society

Indonesia’s birth rate is decreasing, and its population growth rate is also slowing. These trends are largely due to evolving economic conditions and shifting societal values.

Since the decline in birth rates can impact the economy and social structures over the long term, both the government and private sector must develop forward-looking policies. While Indonesia can still enjoy its demographic dividend for the time being, it is vital to prepare for the future with well-considered, long-term strategies.